Genesis of the 1500 IQ Humanoids

[J11]

We haven't even mentioned phasing yet!

Being able to determine what genotypes were on which strands would be another powerful
amplifier of this technology. We have seen this before with the paper on the Polygenics of AD.
It is then no longer about barely measurable SNP effects but substantial blocks of risk that would
be inherited together. With 10,000 SNPs there might be some independent SNPs that could still
travel together in blocks.

[floramaria]

J11, You ask, "Anyone want to check their polygenic IQ score for these SNPs?"
I might. You lost me , in terms of my ability to make sense of what you are saying, back there
where the extra tall intelligence enhanced humans were going to clean your eaves!
How would I check it?

[J11]

flora, I have written a program that checks through my 23andme file and looks for SNPs that I copy and paste into the program.
Makes finding SNPs and their genotypes much easier.
If I can find this program, then I could save everyone a lot of leg work.
I could then copy and paste to The Broad proxy SNP url and find if they could help us fill in the blanks.

I will also see what SNPs the Michigan Imputation can pick up.


This is now very exciting!
I want to write a few little programs to see what happens when someone does a little genetic match making with
these SNPs. It seems that there will be some large effects when people start making these rational choices.

It also occurred to me that one would not need to stop with IQ. Possibly there could be tens of thousands of these little
CRISPRs off the shelf that could help change the heterogeneous SNPs. This will make an enormous difference in our society.

[J11]

I am only now realizing how profoundly this technology will reshape the structure of our society. When there was no specific understanding of the actual variants involved in traits such as intelligence, the best reproductive strategy was assortative mating. This might not be true anymore. It appears that by carefully selecting a partner their optimal genotype might not be simply the one with the highest IQ.

Our preconceived notions of how reproduction inheritance and resulting class structure might need an overhaul. The specific genetic technologies that develop and the exact implications they might have for changing the structure of society deserves some consideration. My simulations up till now suggest a flattening of the Bell Curve.


It will now be very interesting to watch how the elite respond to this challenge. A capitulation likely is the best strategy.

Extreme selective ability by potential partners, combined with PGD and CRISPR would be highly effective in very large changes in IQ.

One snag that I have become aware of is that the SNPS isolated to date are typically not causal. A small fraction would be, though most would not. There would be a few workarounds. One idea is to focus more on selecting the natural chromosomes.

I am now wondering whether a multichromosome parent could be possible. We already know that 3 parent children are possible. What about a 47 parent children? Selection on this basis would have a very powerful effect. Such a technique could offer a low tech workaround.

[J11]

I am continuing to try and understand how this latest development will impact humanity and on what time scale.

It seems reasonable to expect that within 2-3 years greatly improved knowledge will exist for the SNPs of IQ. With the latest news many governments should be considering investment in GWAS to at the very least appear to be doing something relevant.

Higher IQ humans should begin to be born sometime within the next year. At first we might not see 10 SD enhanced humans, though the technology is already in place for a roll out and a ramp up as the technology improves.

Some nation's have already moved to wide scale PGD. With a moderate selection size of 10, this moves IQ 1SD. Carefully selecting genotype matches for partners would enhance. Even with mature and easily available technology IQ enhancement can now occur.

[Stavia]

J11, partner selection is extremely unlikely. People do not chose partners on the genetic information but effectively on sexual and emotional attraction. And the current "ruling class" ie rich and powerful chose partners mainly from within their class. Hard wired drivers for this.

I still strongly believe that the hardwired drives such as for power and dominance and pure greed will overpower logic and altruism in enough rich people to be able to monopolise genetic enhancement at least for long enough for them to create a ruling elite.
J11 - I am puzzled why you think these people will use this power for good. I know they should..... why do you think they will?
I'm interested in your assumption that logic will prevail and result in a good outcome.


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[J11]

I am still trying to write some more programs to extend my simulations though from my current understanding obstruction of this technology will be futile. There are simply too many leaks to plug.

This is the turning point for human genotypic IQ.
After almost two centuries of decline, a substantial and rapid increase should now occur.

All the frequencies of the SNPS found are such that they will be found universally throughout human populations. Even low resource societies will be able to apply approaches that will enhance their IQ. The combination of genetic selection of partners, along with PGD, and high fertility in some regions of the world could be a very powerful accelerator.

The potential for substantial social turmoil as genetics gives people the opportunity to find the best match amongst hundreds of millions of partners does give one pause.

Once the futility of obstruction is more fully appreciated we can all get on side and harvest some of the many benefits.

This is an AD forum so it needs to be noted that this will be of direct benefit to us. A recent article found that polygenic IQ score independently protected against dementia. When the IQ generation emerges, a large percentage of them will have at least some family history of the illness. Dementia research would be a reasonable destination for many of them. One can only imagine how much progress could be made with millions of people with IQs over 10 SDs.

[J11]

With respect to the question will people use this for the good, I am ambivalent. The evidence is not entirely encouraging. John von Neumann who created one of the first computers, realized that this would then eventually result in a Singularity helped split the atom among other accomplishments was also an extreme advocate of launching an unprovoked first strike against the then non-nuclear Soviet Union. Von Neumann was widely understood to be the most intelligent among his peer group which included Albert Einstein.

Very smart people can also be angry at some of the gross stupidity that they would perceive all the more clearly than the rest of us.
We need to start at once to create a world based on love and not hate.
If we don't there might only be craters left of our planet after the 100 SD arrive.

We are quickly approaching a time in which our very survival will depend upon a higher moral as well as intellectual intelligence. The days that drug use could be possible are quickly fading. Enhancing human IQ to the extent that is already possible will not be compatible with drug use.

[J11]

I finally have the second part of my simulation up and running.

In the first round of simulation I wanted to know what would happen if I randomly generated people with
the 246 SNPs and then CRISPRed them with the recently announced technique that is now ready for the clinic.
The simulation found a large effect. The average person would moved from a Zscore of 25 to 600.

Basically, this could be the basis of future wrongful birth suits when children would sue their parents for not increasing
their Zscore by 575 points for these 246 SNPs alone.

The next round of the simulation is still only using a single round of selection.
This time I wanted to see what happens when a couple produced a large number of virtual embryos and then zscored them.

In one simulation round I made 10,000 virtual embryos and the range in Zscores was also quite significant.
This time the Zscores ranged over 300 points. This simulation is modeling the IQ differences of siblings in a
family.

These are only single run simulations. Moving up to the triple run could result in very large effects.

The last single run to try is partner selection.

[J11]

I have run a range of simulations and there are large differences whenever any of these techniques are done alone or in combination.
I would like to try even larger simulations, though I am now running out of computer memory. Perhaps a supercomputer will be necessary in order to select the optimal partners based upon their genotypes. However, the problem still to a certain extent is related to the random process of genotype creation.

The next generation of CRISPR that is already on the horizon would allow for full optimization which for the 246 SNPs would be a very large IQ increase. This would increase the average person's IQ gain from perhaps 0.15 SD (2 point) for these SNPs to 5 SD. It is massive.
Should this thread be renamed to reflect the possibility of 3000 IQ Humanoids?