Visit-to-visit variability of Total Cholesterol and high risk of cardiovascular outomes

[SusanJ]

As I was digging around in the research regarding lipids while working on the new wiki page, I came across something we've not discussed in the past (at least I couldn't find it through search).

Higher variability of Total Cholesterol (TC) results from visit-to-visit is associated with all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke.

The first, from 2015, looked at 9572 patients on different statin doses.

We evaluated patients with coronary artery disease and LDL-C <130 mg/dl enrolled in the TNT (Treating to New Targets) trial, randomly assigned to receive atorvastatin 80 mg/day versus 10 mg/day and with at least one post-baseline measurement of LDL-C. Visit-to-visit LDL-C variability was evaluated from 3 months into random assignment through the use of various measurements of LDL-C variability: SD, average successive variability (ASV), coefficient of variation, and variation independent of mean, with the first 2 measurements used as the primary measurements. Primary outcome was any coronary event, and secondary outcomes were any cardiovascular event, death, myocardial infarction, or stroke.
RESULTS:
Among 9,572 patients, SD and ASV were significantly lower with atorvastatin 80 mg/day versus 10 mg/day (SD: 12.03 ± 9.70 vs. 12.52 ± 7.43; p = 0.005; ASV: 12.84 ± 10.48 vs. 13.76 ± 8.69; p < 0.0001). In the adjusted model, each 1-SD increase in LDL-C variability (by ASV) increased the risk of any coronary event by 16% (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10 to 1.23; p < 0.0001), any cardiovascular event by 11% (HR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.15; p < 0.0001), death by 23% (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.34; p < 0.0001), myocardial infarction by 10% (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.19; p = 0.02), and stroke by 17% (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.31; p = 0.01), independent of treatment effect and achieved LDL-C levels. Results were largely consistent when adjusted for medication adherence.

Atorvastatin had a protective effect for those with CAD and high variability.


The second, from 2017, looked at 9,572 Korean patients without a history of MI and stroke and found:

There was a linear association between higher TC variability and outcome measures. In the multivariable adjusted model, the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing the highest vs. lowest quartiles of CV of TC were 1.26 (1.24-1.28) for all-cause mortality, 1.08 (1.05-1.11) for MI, and 1.11 (1.08-1.14) for stroke, which was independent of mean TC levels and the use of lipid-lowering agents.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29069458

Has anyone here noticed swings in their TC, not related to attributable causes (diet change, weight loss, etc)?

Wondering what mechanisms are behind the association...