Heart disease risk calculator dramatically OVERestimates actual risk

[Julie G]

The American Heart Association & American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) risk calculator appears to overestimate risk by 400-500%, so much as to be useless. Read this blog post by Dr. Malcolm Kendrick to get his take, via several new papers, on REAL risk factors. Spoiler alert: they're not what you think! Fascinating stuff… and kinda great news for anyone who had a high score. Also, kinda scary for anyone who made the decision to take a statin based upon this algorithm. It's shocking how much we're still learning.

[donbob]

The American Heart Association & American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) risk calculator appears to overestimate risk by 400-500%, so much as to be useless. Read this blog post by Dr. Malcolm Kendrick to get his take, via several new papers, on REAL risk factors. Spoiler alert: they're not what you think! Fascinating stuff… and kinda great news for anyone who had a high score. Also, kinda scary for anyone who made the decision to take a statin based upon this algorithm. It's shocking how much we're still learning.

The AHA/ACC risk calculator seems to be a function of age. Holding all my variables constant but age I got significant change in risk. Enter 71 years, 15%. Enter 61 years, 7%.

At Age 70, my Coronary Artery Calcification was 19, an estimated risk of approximately 3% (per family doctor) chance of a major coronary event in the next ten years.

[SoCalGuy]

The problem with this calculator is it uses total cholesterol to assess risk. You may as well assess risk based on eye color, it will tell you as much as total cholesterol. At least that's what I've taken from Peter Attia regarding total cholesterol.

[floramaria]

Happy to read more information reinforcing the idea that high total cholesterol and high LDL aren't the risk factors that they have long been considered to be. Especially gratifying in light of my recent l lipid panel and flagged 155 value for LDL-C.
Looking forward to reading what Dr Kendricks says in the next blog about how to actually reduce risk given the real risk factors.

[lindaelane]

Hello! Dr. Kendricks explains that he gets information from Ivor Cummins, a biomedical engineer. (Its the biomedical folk who often get nobel prizes for medicine). The videos by Ivor Cummins on YouTube are excellent, and -bonus- he has a great Irish accent. I recommend going to YouTube and putting Ivor Cummins in the search box if you are not familiar with his work. I have learned an incredible amount from him. (Btw, I've bought his book and its based on what I see as good research. I know the basics problems of studies that get published but are problematic though my own PhD, and Ivor does not use things like that.)

Example: If you do not yet know about Ancel Keys and his selective research (using only 7 of 21 countries he gathered statistics from to prove what he wanted to prove) then this is one of many examples. We have been cursed for years with "low fat, high carb" diet ideas, and the history of how Keys influenced peers and the AMA is fascinating Ivor teaching that and much more very well.